It has been a week since the Afghan Taliban entered the capital Kabul on August 15.
Over the past week, the internal and external trends in Afghanistan, no matter how big or small, have affected the nerves of the outside world.
How will the new government be formed?
Last Sunday, the Taliban took Kabul by lightning.
After that, the Taliban sent a series of major announcements and actions to the world: including holding the first press conference, announcing plans to form an inclusive government, and dialogue with all parties in Afghanistan, amnesty to all the staff of the Afghan government and members of the security forces...
Among them, the future governing framework of Afghanistan has received particular attention. The outside world is concerned, who is leading a country that changes overnight? Who will lead?
According to Xinhua News Agency, there is still no head of state in Afghanistan, and the Taliban have only appointed some governors and mayors.
As for the specific organizational form of the new government, the Taliban has not yet clearly explained, but its public statement has outlined its vision. According to Xinhua News Agency, the following characteristics can be listed: The Taliban has no plan to form an interim government or transitional government, and will directly form an inclusive government that can be accepted by all parties in Afghanistan; hope to establish a strong central government that respects the rule of law and is free of corruption. System; Afghanistan will have a strong Islamic government and so on.
As for the composition of the top leadership, Xinhua News Agency quoted the Afghan Dawn News Network as saying that Taliban leader Hashimi said that a committee may be formed to manage Afghanistan in the future. This committee will be under the leadership of the top leader of the Taliban, Ahunzada. Work under. Hashimi also said that Ahhunzada is the religious and political leader of the Taliban, but he will not hold a position similar to that of the president. He will play a more important role and he will choose another candidate for this position.
At the same time, the Taliban are currently accelerating negotiations with all parties on the formation of a government. According to Xinhua News Agency, the Afghan Hama News Agency said on the 22nd that the Taliban are preparing for a high-level meeting in Kabul, aiming to negotiate with the political forces in Afghanistan to form an "inclusive government." On the 21st, the Taliban delegation met with Afghan politicians in Kabul, including former Afghan President Karzai, Chairman of the Afghan National Reconciliation High Commission, and former Afghan government chief executive Abdullah Abdullah, leader of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan, Former Prime Minister Hikmatyar and others.
The report also quoted Reuters as saying that the Taliban will meet with former governors and government officials in more than 20 of the 34 provinces across the country to gain more support. A Taliban member told the Russian Satellite News Agency on the 21st that Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the founders of the Taliban and the Taliban leader in charge of political affairs, is expected to announce the decision on the structure of the Afghan government in the next two weeks. Baradar has returned to Kabul from Doha, the capital of Qatar.
Regarding the formation of the new Afghan government, Li Shaoxian, the dean of the Chinese Arab National Research Institute of Ningxia University, gave four points of analysis: First, the Taliban has no plan to form a transitional government or an interim government because of the situation. The establishment of a transitional or interim government is mainly to solve the problem of power transfer, but after President Ghani left, the Taliban directly took over the power, and there was no need to prepare for the establishment of a transitional or interim government.
Second, judging from the Taliban’s statement, the new government must be led by the Taliban and built on the basis of its religious ideals.
Third, the "inclusive government" that the Taliban hopes to establish is expected to absorb representative figures from all ethnic groups and factions in Afghanistan and give the latter certain powers.
Fourth, it seems that the process of forming a government by the Taliban is relatively smooth. It is frequently negotiating with important figures of all factions and races, and even Ghani’s brother has promised to support the Taliban. As for when a government can be established, the Taliban still have time to calm down. The Taliban have already said that they will not announce the establishment of a government before the entire withdrawal of foreign troops.
Analysts also pointed out that from the Afghan politicians contacted by the Taliban, one can see the "spectrum" composition that affects the future government structure.
Pan Guang, an expert on Afghanistan, senior adviser of the Chinese Middle East Society, and director of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Research Center of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believes that in the process of forming a new government, several key forces will play an influential role: one is the number one in Afghanistan represented by the Taliban. The orthodox and extreme Sunni Islam of the Pashtun tribe, this force will play a leading role; the second is the Pashtun who has different political views with the Taliban represented by the former president Karzai; the third is the chief of the former Afghan government Executive Officer Abdullah represents the second largest ethnic Tajik power in Afghanistan; the fourth is the former Northern Alliance leader Masood’s son, and Vice President Saleh is represented by the opposition forces that are militarily resisting the Taliban; the fifth is the former prime minister’s hope. The local warlord power represented by Kmartyar.
Can the anti-Tower alliance become a climate?
When the Afghan parties intensively negotiated in the capital to build a new government, in northern Afghanistan, anti-Taliban activists continued to fight, adding variables to the situation in Afghanistan.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Afghan Vice President Saleh is now teaming up with Masood, the son of former Northern Alliance leader Masood, to assemble a number of people in Panjshir Province in northeastern Afghanistan to resist the Taliban attack.
So, how is the resistance movement going now? According to the Xinhua News Agency previously quoted a report from the Russian Satellite News Agency, anti-Taliban forces have retaken the Charikar area of Parwan province north of Kabul, cutting off Kabul’s main road to Mazar-i-Sharif, the largest city in the north.
Xinhua News Agency also quoted a report from the Afghan Dawn News Network on the 21st that the local militia organization in the northern Baghlan Province regained three areas from the Taliban. This is the first time since the Taliban occupied 33 of the 34 provinces in Afghanistan that an armed organization has taken back land from the Taliban.
However, in Li Shaoxian's view, the anti-Thailand alliance may not become a climate. First, from the perspective of internal and external conditions, the Taliban have the upper hand. Internally, the Taliban announced the establishment of an inclusive government and actively negotiated with all parties, progressing relatively smoothly. In contrast, the anti-Tower alliance has no popular support in China. Externally, the international community has basically accepted the status quo of the Taliban taking over the regime. As for whether to recognize the Taliban regime in the next step, it is another matter. Therefore, there is no room for expansion inside or outside the anti-tower alliance. Second, as the Russian media commented, the anti-Thailand alliance is problematic in terms of armed forces and energy supply. Moreover, the West will not return to Afghanistan after the withdrawal. Therefore, in terms of strength, the anti-Taliban alliance cannot compete with the Taliban. The third is that Little Massoud also released a signal of reconciliation. In an interview with Reuters and Arab TV, Masood stated that he hopes to negotiate peace with the Taliban, but his troops are also ready for battle.
The Wall Street Journal stated that if there is no external support or access to friendly neighboring countries, it will be difficult for anti-Taliban fighters to persist for a long time. The newspaper believes that the main purpose of the anti-Thailand coalition's resistance movement is to put pressure on the Taliban to participate in the formation of a new government, not to provoke a new civil war.
However, Pan Guang believes that the anti-Tower alliance may also develop and grow, and the prospects are still difficult to assert. An opposition resistance movement has always existed in Afghanistan and is deeply entrenched. After the Taliban first came to power in the 1990s, the Northern Alliance was the vanguard of the anti-Taliban. The Panjshir Valley, now entrenched by the Anti-Tower Alliance, is its base, easy to defend and difficult to attack. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, it also came back down here. It is unknown whether the Taliban can win it. Third, the domestic situation in Afghanistan has not yet stabilized. Although the current atmosphere is calm, after a period of time, once the economic crisis continues, it will inevitably lead to social unrest, and it is not impossible for an anti-Thailand alliance or taking advantage of the opportunity to integrate opposition forces.
What are the difficulties faced by the G7 summit?
After the change of the sky in Afghanistan, the international community has been paying close attention to the development of the situation in the past week. The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting the day after the Taliban entered Kabul. The foreign ministers of Russia, the United States, China, Britain and other foreign ministers conducted intensive bilateral calls. The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) are scheduled to hold a video summit on the 24th to discuss the situation in Afghanistan. Last Thursday, the G7 foreign ministers held an online meeting and issued a statement.
It is expected that the G7 summit on Tuesday will face a series of thorny issues.
One is to coordinate the evacuation operations. This is currently the most headache for the West. The United States' hastily and chaotic withdrawal of its troops has greatly disappointed its Western allies. Allies, including the United Kingdom, expressed their hope that the United States would extend the August 31 deadline for ending its military mission in Afghanistan. In the face of a large number of US personnel and allies and partners stranded in Afghanistan, Biden has also changed his claim that the extension may be postponed, but has not yet confirmed. Whether the United States and its allies can reach a consensus on the extension will be a major issue at the summit.
The second is how to deal with the Taliban regime "against the table".
US President Biden told reporters on the 20th that he and Secretary of State Blincoln will negotiate with other countries to set "strict conditions" for recognizing the Taliban regime or cooperating with it.
Analysts believe that for the West, how to deal with the Taliban in the future is indeed a difficult problem.
"The West is hesitant about this. On the one hand, it has to admit the reality, but on the other hand, it takes a lot of thought to recognize the Taliban." Li Shaoxian said that there is also a "temperature difference" in the West's attitude towards the Taliban, so the G7 summit hopes to have a unified pace. , Forming a situation of joint pressure on the Taliban. From the current point of view, since all personnel have not yet been evacuated, the West has a generally pragmatic attitude towards the Taliban, and the threat of sanctions thrown out more is to pressure them to fulfill their promises. However, when the West completes its withdrawal, sanctions will become an important means of restraining the Taliban, and the West may also "make a face" against the Taliban.
As for how the West will interact with the Taliban in the future, Li Shaoxian believes that the key lies in whether the Taliban can fulfill their promises, including establishing an inclusive government, implementing an inclusive policy, and not providing shelter for terrorist organizations.
The third is to deal with the problem of potential refugee flows.
The outside world is worried that the chaos in Afghanistan may trigger a wave of refugees, and some neighboring and regional countries are already worried.
The Austrian Prime Minister said that he would not accept Afghan refugees; Turkey has strengthened border controls to stop the flow of Afghan refugees. President Erdogan also pressured Europe to take action to prevent a refugee crisis similar to that of 2015. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Europe not to dump refugees to Central Asian countries.
Pan Guang believes that the refugee tide has not yet formed, but the future prospects are grim. Over time, if the Afghan people cannot see a way out or are disappointed in reality, they will still choose to leave Afghanistan.
Li Shaoxian said that the refugee issue is indeed the most concerned issue of the international community. Over the years, the turmoil in Afghanistan has produced six or seven million refugees, and more refugees will be produced after this change. However, it should be noted that the Taliban took over power quickly and peacefully this time, and the so-called refugee wave is more of an impression caused by the evacuation of chaos. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether it will detonate the refugee crisis, or how serious it is.
"However, terrorists are likely to use their refugee status to escape Afghanistan, which is extremely harmful to all countries. The reason why many countries are extremely cautious is also out of concerns about national security. The United States' withdrawal is slow, one of the reasons The reason is also to identify the identity of the person leaving the country." Li Shaoxian said.
In addition to the G7 summit, this week, the UN Human Rights Council will hold a special meeting on August 24 to discuss and respond to the human rights situation and concerns of all parties in Afghanistan. Prior to this, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation held an emergency meeting on August 22 to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.
Pan Guang pointed out that the Afghan issue needs a joint response by the international community, and it cannot be solved by one country or several countries. Afghanistan and its neighbors, parties to the conflict, the UN Security Council, the Group of Twenty, and international aid agencies should all participate.
Li Shaoxian also believes that responding to the situation in Afghanistan is the top priority of the international community, and in particular, humanitarian assistance should be provided to Afghanistan as soon as possible. Because of the severe food shortage in Afghanistan, humanitarian disasters may soon appear.
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