In 2021, composite material market expectation: glass fiber prices continue to rise carbon fiber capacity
Driven by national policies and downstream markets, China's new material industry continues to maintain a steady growth trend. The total output value of China's new materials industry was 4.5 trillion yuan in 2019, up 15.4 percent year on year, according to the China Association for New Materials Technology. According to a preliminary estimate made by China Business Industry Research Institute, the national output value of new materials in 2020 will exceed 6 trillion yuan.
At present, most new material products are still in the early stage and growth stage, with small market capacity and low market penetration. By strengthening product innovation and attaching importance to technological research and development, they will gain a broad future market. It is expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan by 2021. The output value of China's new materials industry is expected to break the 10 trillion yuan mark by 2025, according to the China Business Industry Research Institute. In nonmetallic composite materials, glass fiber and carbon fiber occupy the largest share.
I. Glass fiber market forecast
1. The demand side
Domestic demand remains robust in the fourth quarter of 2020, while overseas demand has picked up: inventories in Monolith Egypt, for example, are down to around two weeks, and U.S. inventories are trending down. Driven by the deterministic recovery of automobile, electronic and electrical appliances and overseas demand, the demand of glass fiber in 2021 is likely to be better than that in 2020.
2. The supply side
In 2021, the supply increment will be between 500,000 and 600,000 tons (chongqing International will put into operation the production line with annual production capacity of 88,000 tons and 45,000 tons respectively in the second quarter, which is the incremental information), which is still limited compared with the capacity release of over 1 million tons in 2018-2019.
3. Prices
In the fourth quarter of 2020, roving and products still show structural price increases (such as thermoplastic yarn, which increased by 200~500 yuan/ton in the off-season in early January). In 2021, there is still a comprehensive price increase expectation, and it is highly likely that the price will hit a record high.
4. Electronic cloth
At present, the price of the mainstream 7628 cloth has reached 5.3~5.5 yuan/m, and enterprises are generally optimistic about the price outlook of electronic cloth in 2021. Boulder believes that 2021 is expected to rise throughout the year, with a high probability of price rise in the first half of 2021 and uncertainty in the second half. However, it gives the guidance of the average price of over 7 yuan/m in the second quarter, which exceeds market expectations.
Generally speaking, the price rise of glass fiber roving and electronic cloth in the off-season has exceeded market expectations. Looking forward to 2021, it is believed that the path of glass fiber price rise is expected to continue, and it is expected that the performance of China Boulder in 2021 will constantly refresh the forecast (it is expected to be raised again to 4.5 ~5 billion yuan).
II. Carbon fiber market forecast
1. Capacity increases
In recent years, spurred by the steady growth of the demand side, the theoretical capacity of carbon fiber in the world continues to increase. In 2019, the global theoretical capacity of carbon fiber reached 154,900 tons. Most of the world's carbon fiber production capacity is concentrated in the United States, Japan and China, accounting for 60.23%, or more than 60%. Among them, the theoretical capacity of carbon fiber is 37,300 tons in the United States, 29,100 tons in Japan and 26,900 tons in China.
2. Growth in demand
In recent years due to the advantages of carbon fiber quality gently degrees are widely used by the downstream market, the market demand continuously expanded, in 2019, domestic market demand for 37800 tons of carbon fiber, carbon fiber industry in China is in the current outbreak growth, the future demand for carbon fiber market growth remain at around 17%, with carbon fiber as a lot of capital into the carbon fiber industry, With continuous breakthroughs in carbon fiber technology, the demand field will be further expanded. It is expected that China's carbon fiber market demand will break through 110,000 tons in 2026.
3. Lower dependence on imports
At the same time, China's carbon fiber industry gradually out of the trough, capacity utilization continues to improve, the domestic market import dependence decreased year by year. By 2019, the proportion of imported carbon fiber fell to 69 percent, and is expected to fall further to 55.9 percent by 2025. The domestic carbon fiber industry is gradually recovering from the trough. Excellent carbon fiber production enterprises are expanding capacity and expanding market at a steady pace based on technological accumulation and innovation.
4. Change in demand structure
There are structural differences between China's carbon fiber demand and overseas demand. The demand of carbon fiber in sports goods field in China is much ahead of overseas; Wind turbine blade, building exterior wall field has occupied the advantage; In pressure vessel, aerospace, automobile and other fields, the application of carbon fiber in China lags behind the world advanced level. The structural difference in domestic carbon fiber demand also indicates structural opportunities. In the future, China's aerospace, pressure vessel, automobile and other fields are expected to see a significant increase in demand space.